First half of 2008, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market Shenfudiaozheng, medicine is a more defensive market sectors one of the plates. Analysts believe that the more defensive medicine plate for two reasons: First, the pharmaceutical industry with a strong anti-inflation capacity, long-term growth prospects and relatively stable, which makes its valuation is not as much as a cyclical industry, the market sharply lower; Second, the performance of pharmaceutical companies in 2008 ushered in opener, played a supporting role on the stock.
See from the second half of 2008, the new Medical Reform Effect gradually release the pharmaceutical industry by the industry boom of the valuation levels support is not expected to occur significantly reduced, but the results are likely to progressively lower growth trend. This means that investors invest in the direction of large medical plate can look good, but the choice of the specific species should be more "intensive." Increase the growth of new medical reform
certainty Although the new health care reform has not been formally implemented, but almost all analyst recommendations have become the first reason for concern about Chinese stocks. Analysts said the new medical reform as expected, the pharmaceutical industry is the current market long-term growth prospects of the most stable industries.
Guoxin Securities analysts believe that health care reform will be the development of pharmaceutical industry for 10 years, "traction." National Development and Reform Commission, "pharmaceutical industry" Eleventh Five-Year "Development of guidance" in the proposed objectives are: All 2010 Health Insurance , And medical and separate, completely changed, "to drug dependent doctors" situation. In this context, Pharmaceutical market Although the gradual expansion of the cake, but it is defined.
The short term, new medical reform measures related to the current role of the pharmaceutical industry has begun to show driving. Guotai Junan Securities analyst expects the new medical reform the pharmaceutical industry in 2008 to provide for 9% -11% increments. First, urban residents Health Insurance Established in 2007, if 100 a month, comprehensive coverage of the required amount to 240 billion yuan. If you cover half of the population in 2008, then in increments of 12 billion yuan in 2008. Secondly, the new rural cooperative medical care at the end of 2007, compared to 86% nationwide coverage, 2008 will achieve full coverage. As a result, in 2008 NCMS Incremental capital investment will reach 350 billion yuan. Combined with the pharmaceutical industry's own growth rate may be 16-20%, and analysts expect the pharmaceutical industry, the overall revenue growth in 2008 may be between 25-32%.
Downside risk is not Valuation Reduce systemic market valuation hub, is a lot of trades this year, the main reason the stock Shenfudiaozheng. So, medical center plate valuation will be systematically lower in the second half it? From the pharmaceutical industry a strong anti-inflation capacity, and medicine plate with all the historical average premium of A shares of the degree of view, Chinese shares sharply lower valuations are less likely.
Ability to bring anti-inflation premium valuation. Plates of different sectors from the recent market performance, the anti-inflation industries such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries, food and beverages and so a certain amount of the valuation premium. Inflation throughout the economy is an important theme of the year 2008, in this context, the same ability with strong resistance to the medical section of inflation, is expected to continue to gain market premium to the valuation.
CITIC Securities analysts found that many Pharmaceutical Industry Have a strong ability against inflation. In particular, the pharmaceutical companies against inflation, mainly through the following channels:
First, the pricing of corporate products, by raising product prices to absorb rising costs. Product pricing to be offered by the following factors: the industry with a high concentration or monopoly, new barriers to entry high, downstream customers can afford their prices. In particular, most of the raw materials (including bulk API , Chinese Herbal Medicine) and has a brand manufacturer of high quality agents (including chemical agents and Chinese patent medicines) manufacturers on product pricing has obvious advantages. Therefore, they have a strong price inflation conversion capabilities, such as the Northeast Pharmaceutical production vc, production VA, VE, Zhejiang medicine, new, and as such, and Chinese Herbal Medicine U.S. pharmaceutical companies such as health.
Second, continuously improve profitability and cut costs and also some corporate earnings growth is not eye-catching, but still sustained substantial profit growth. A brand, product market share of high quality pharmaceutical companies, can scale to absorb inflation, such as the brand part of the Chinese enterprises; and HRH, Double-Crane and other highly innovative R & D pharmaceutical enterprise, you can progress through technology, raw material self-sufficiency improve the product mix to absorb inflation; In addition, governance practices, a sound distribution network can reduce the cost of pharmaceutical companies to absorb inflation, such as HRH, Double-Crane, East China; the circulation of the leading companies as well as the size and cost advantages improvement of product structure management can improve its profitability and strengthen the capacity of anti-inflation, such as Sinopharm shares the same medicine, medicine and other regional leading enterprises in Shanghai.
Third, national policies to protect prices on the rise Channel. New medical reform "low level, wide coverage," the idea of view, quality and cheap prices of generic drugs is expected to stabilize or even rise in the future, it also increases the ability of the corresponding company's anti-inflationary, such as increased state at the beginning of major transfusion Double-Crane the price of generic drugs.
Current valuation is at a reasonable area. Guotai Junan, according to statistics, the dynamic price-earnings ratio to measure the year ,02-07 all the A shares of the pharmaceutical industry is relatively average premium of 57.7%, in the six years, the pharmaceutical industry PE of the extreme range in the 23-60 times. From this we can largely determine the valuation of the current state of pharmaceutical stocks.
Information, according to Wind Statistics, to July 2 as the benchmark price, the overall method of medical bio-dynamic plate in 2008 was 24.91 times price-earnings ratio, while all the A shares was 16.20 times higher than all the medicine blocks the current premium of A shares and 53.8 %. Easy to see that the current medicine plate relative to the A share premium rate is still in its historical average. If we take into account the size of non-listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is relatively small reduction of pressure, you can determine the valuation of the plate will not be much room down.
